At Arlington Racetrack today was 29th running of the G3 Chicago Handicap, a 7f race for 3 year-old fillies and mares on the main track. The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Hotshot Anna to win with a 29.60% combined winning estimate. The horse set a new track record at the distance, finishing in a blistering 1:20.93. Next came Princess LaQuinta, which the Handicap Wizard had ranked third. Hotshot Anna paid $11.60 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $49.60.
The Handicap Wizard went three-for-three in the Triple Crown Races, again picking Justify to win the Belmont Stakes.
The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted winners in five out of six claiming races at Gulfstream Park on Saturday (not counting the 5f race in the 11th), even on a sloppy track. This included a big result in the 10th with Power Jak winning, paying $16.80. The ROI for those claiming races was 212% with a total profit of $25.40 for $12 worth of wagers.
Race 4
Race 5
Race 6
Race 10
Race 12
With Bolt d’Oro opting to pass on the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown is shaping up to be a lopsided affair in favor of Kentucky Derby Champion, Justify. Only Derby runner-up, Good Magic, realistically is poised to challenge, who, despite never leading in the race, finished a dogged two lengths back in the mud. Coming in as a new shooter, Tampa Bay Derby winner, Quip, has the potential to hit the board, as does Lone Sailor, who benefited from a rail trip in the Kentucky Derby to capture 8th. However, both fall well short of the two favorites to warrant any serious win consideration and will likely be underlays, considering their theoretical odds are 19-1. Bravazo could surprise after an excellent effort in the Kentucky Derby, which saw him in fourth position after the far turn, only to flatten out for sixth. Observers have noted that the horse traveled forty-four feet more in the Derby than Justify did from taking a wide trip for most of the race. With a smaller field of nine contenders, Bravazo is expected to be closer to the pace this time, which should put him more in contention down the stretch. But at 25-1 in the futures odds, he is expensive even as a long-shot according to the model.
As a further illustration of the accuracy of the program, the Handicap Wizard rated Blended Citizen (7-2) essentially equal to the odds favorite, Core Beliefs (2-1), in the 1 1/8 mi. Peter Pan (G3) last Saturday at Belmont, assigning each a combined winning estimate of 30%. Next came Just Whistle and High North both with 13%. This was the order of the superfecta. In comparison, the live odds had the order Core Beliefs/High North (2-1), followed by Just Whistle (5-2) and Blended Citizen (7-2) fourth. Having the highest speed estimate, Blended Citizen overtook Core Beliefs with a burst of speed deep down the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 