Author: handicapwizard

The Turf Program had a good result in the finale at Gulfstream today, the G3 Suwannee River Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #7 Be Your Best at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 21.75%, translating into odds of 7-2. Be Your Best projected first in final speed with a 51.1% win estimate (1-1) strength while having the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. With a Coefficient of Variance of 4.41%, Be Your Best’s risk was low, making its speed projection more reliable, which it turned out to be. In the race, Be Your Best stalked from the second position at the half-mile mark before making a move around the far turn and taking the lead down the stretch. Be Your Best paid $12.00 for the win.

The dirt program had another nice result at Tampa, this time in the 7th, a $25K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up with its first selection of #1 Catire Vizcaya at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 29.44%, converting into theoretical odds of 2-1, which is where the Catire Vizcaya went off. In the race, Catire Vizcaya went wire-to-wire to win by two lengths.

https://videopress.com/v/J9W6SxJp?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

The program had a nice exacta result in the 4th race at Tampa today, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up, with its first two selections of #2 Humor Sense at 9-5 and #4 Shamu at 5-1. The $1 exacta paid $10.80. The program also had the tri-fecta orrder correct with #9 American Peaches as the third selection at 6-1. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $21.50.

https://videopress.com/v/rraIGSJJ?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

The program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Aqueduct, a $35K maiden race for three-year-olds, with the second selection, #6 Just Be Honest at 18-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.6%, converting into theoretical odds of 4-1. Just Be Honest projected first in SPD (final speed) with a win estimate of 36.4% (2-1 strength) while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.62%. Additionally, the horse had a 73.% COMP value (2-5 strength), which could partly be due to elevated CV but is a strong percentage nonetheless. In other words, the horse projected 2-5 on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation while going off at 18-1! That’s some serious mispricing by the pool. In the race, Just Be Honest led past the half-mile point and then put away #4 First Trumpet down the stretch. The horse paid $38.60 for the win. With the program having the exacta order reversed with its first two selections of Just Be Honest and First Trumpet, the $1 exacta paid $136.00! The program also had the tri-fecta horses with its top three selections, including with #3 Very Satisfactory at 5-2 as the third place horse.

https://videopress.com/v/cMErY0hs?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

The Turf Program had a nice result in the 10th at Tampa, a $16K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #9 She’s a Keeper at 16-1, who had a total win probability of 23.82%, translating into theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 29.7% with a Coefficient of Variance 6.82%, indicating average to below average risk. The horse had E1 and E2 estimates of 87.4% and 38% while having a COMP value of 47.6%, suggesting about 1-1 strength. In the race, She’s a Keeper led early on and nearly held on to the win down the stretch but was caught right at the wire by #10 Mrs. Katz, who was the third selection at 9-2. She’s a Keeper paid $14.20 for the place while the $1 exacta paid $67.