Author: handicapwizard

Here is an example of how PHW 4.1 Grey can be used to achieve a successful handicapping outcome in finding the true favorite in a race. In race 3 at Belmont, a $16K claiming race for three-year-olds at 6f, there were essentially two favorites in #1 Wayne’s Footsteps at 3-1 and #6 Cobble Hill at 5-2. The total win probabilities of both were around 20%, with Wayne’s Footsteps having a slightly higher one due to a superior Winning Percentage of 19%. However, upon closer inspection of the PP data, there was a red flag for Wayne’s Footsteps, in that the horse had not run a race for 156 days, with the last time being at Aqueduct, while Cobble Hill finished 1st in his last in a $20K maiden race at Belmont two weeks ago. Consequently, it could be construed that Cobble Hill was in good form, whereas there were questions about Wayne’s Footstep’s form coming off the long layoff and with lackluster works in-between. Moreover, Cobble Hill had the edge in jockey and trainer win percentage at 14% and 26%. As a result, Cobble Hill was clearly the better pick this race, who also had an advantage in LP with a 54% win estimate, which propelled the horse down the stretch in a no-contest win.

Here is a first look at the soon-to-be-released Pro-Handicap Wizard, version 4.1. This is the first major update in a year. In addition to the already existing calculations for Total Win Probability (TOP) and expected Return on Investment (ROI), the program contains a number of new features geared toward finding the true favorite in a race by providing information on win fitness, distance and surface success, class changes, jockey and trainer winning percentage, Brisnet Prime Power Rating and the days off since last race. Version 4.1 has new color coding to highlight values by degree for the metrics. All of the programs controls remain the same as the previous version. Click on the image below and then the link in the lower right to see it in full-resolution. 

Here is a nice result today in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf at 1 1/16 mi. for four-year-olds and up. The Turf Program had the exacta order correct with #8 Cash Call Kitten first at 2-1, followed by #3 Basha second at 5-2.

In race 3 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 mi. for four-year olds and up, the program’s first selection, #3 Creak Brklyn Law at 3-1, won over the odds favorite, #1 Dizzy Gillespie at 4-5. Creak Brklyn Law had a total winning probability of 29%, with a SPD estimate of 32.8% (2nd) and a Winning Percentage of 39.8% (1st). On the basis of WP, the horse’s fair value was about 7-5, yet went off at 3-1. As a first selection, Creak Brklyn Law was a slight underlay with an expected ROI of +16%.

Yesterday there was a good result in race 5 at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race at 1M 70Y for three-year-olds and up, in which the Program had the exacta order correct. The favorite was #1 Synergized at 1-1 with a 26% total win probability, who was a coupled entry with #1a Bridlecrest. The second selection was #6 Cape My Style at 20-1, who had a 16.42% total win probability. The horse was overlooked for having a low Winning Percentage of just 3.2%. However, its potential speed according to the simulation told a different story, in that the horse rated second overall with a 27% final speed estimate versus 29.4% for Synergized. On that basis, Cape My Style’s fair value was below 3-1. Compared to its total win probability, which accounts for the horse’s low winning percentage, the horse’s fair value was 5-1. Either way, Cape My Style was significantly underpriced with an expected ROI of +245%. In the race, Synergized took command down the stretch after having been on the lead, while Cape My Style rallied from off the pace to get second in a photo.