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One of the best results today for the Handicap Wizard was in the 7th race at Gulfstream, a $50K optional claiming race at 7 1/2f on the turf for three-year olds that had not won more than one race other than their maidens. Using the soon-to-be-introduced turf model, the top two selections were #7 Big Agenda at 2-1 odds versus its model winning probability of 23.5% and #5 Harley at 8-1 versus its winning probability 19.3%. #4 Justcallmenorman had been the market favorite just before post-time, before his odds settled at 5-2. In the race, Big Agenda and Harley stalked in the three and fourth positions until the half mile point, when they cruised past the leaders. Coming down the stretch, the two dueled together for most of the way, before Harley edged Big Agenda by a nose at the wire in a photo. Harley paid $18 for the win. The $2 exacta paid $95.40.

The developers at Pro-Handicap Wizard are pleased to be offering soon a new turf program. See the HW 4.0 Turf Program page for more details.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner and the tri-fecta with its top three selections in race 10 at Woodbine today, the $225K Bison City Stakes run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies. The order went #6 Speedy Soul at 5-2, #1 Bold Script at 6-5 and #5 Intanga Rose at 6-1.

The result of the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine was an interesting one from a handicapping point of view. While it was not the top selection in the model according to the main algorithm, #5 One Bad Boy had signs of speed in its E1 and E2 estimates (49.4% and 30.8%), so much so that the horse ranked highest in the TRIO category with a 53% winning probability. The TRIO metric is an estimate that combines the simulation results of the E1, E2 and LP components together. Why the horse did not have a higher total winning probability is because it had the lowest variance in final speed figures in the field, which depressed his SPD simulation results relative to the other horses. The other factor was a relatively low winning percentage at 5.8%. Yet, in this race, its speed more than compensated.

Here are the model results for today’s $1 million Queen’s Plate Stakes in race 10 at Woodbine, which is run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Skywire as its top selection due to its highest SPD and LP estimates in the field at 28% and 57% for a total winning probability of 18.34%. Next are Avie’s Flatter at 15.64% and Desert Ride at 14.88%. Two horses that are offering value according to ROI analysis compared to the M/L are #1 Desert Ride at 7-1 and #7 Federal Law at 15-1.