Category: Uncategorized

Today there was cause to smile at the results of the Handicap Wizard for Race 6 at Aquaduct. This race exemplifies how the custom calculation of winning percentage adjusted for stakes can more than compensate for relatively weak speed figures. Over 1M on the main track for a $31K purse, Battle of Evermore at 8.5-1 odds defeated favorite Pirellone (2-1) and three other horses with lower odds by three lengths. The horse and the opportunity were identifiable in the first place for having the WP calculation in the model, with Battle of Evermore ranking highest in this metric (27%). Paid $17.00 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard picked a third consecutive winner at Gulfstream, this time in race 4 with Herecomesyourman, who shortly before the post was 5-2, only to drop down to 7-5 by post time. Paid $4.80. The program was not used in race 3.

On Feb. 22, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the tri-fecta in race 2 over 7f at Gulstream on turf for $22K. Against any suggestion that the model simply picks the “chalks” according to the live odds, which could not be true because the probabilities are purely theoretical and have no connection to the live odds, you will note that the program had Over Limit in second with longer odds of 8-1 over Jaiden’s Best in third at  9-5 (and Sir Hannoun at 3-1!).  Strong Competition at 6-5 was the winner, paying $4.60. This was after the Handicap Wizard picked the winner in race 1, New Atlas.

On Feb. 19, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted undefeated and Baffert trained, Heck Yeah (4-5), to win the $200K California Cup Derby at Santa Anita over 1 1/16 mi on dirt. In this race, as in the Holly Hughes stakes below, the model did exactly what it is programmed to do in picking a winner, who ranked highest in both metrics.

On Feb. 19, the Handicap Wizard nearly predicted the tri- and superfectas in the $200K California Oaks Cup at Santa Anita perfectly, if not for Pulpit Rider (3-1) upsetting the heavy favorite, One Fast Broad (3-5), over 1M on turf. The model had their order reversed for win and place. Otherwise, the program called XS Gold (7-1) and Mo See Call (9-1) for third and fourth correctly.