Santa Anita Derby Preview, Sat., June 6

Here are the projections for today’s $400K G1 Santa Anita Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The program gives the edge to #3 Shooters Shoot with a 25.30% win probability followed by #4 Anneau D’or at 21.36% and #7 Authentic at 19.53%. Although coming off a maiden win and another win in an $80K OC in April, this will be a big step up in stakes for Shooters Shoot, who while having speed on the front-end lacks the Winning Percentage of the other horses. The horse rated best in the simulation according to final speed at 30% but with a fairly high Coefficient of Variation of 11%. The 3rd selection in Authentic was second highest according to SPD at 23.2% but with a Coefficient of Variation ratio of just 4%, pointing to lower risk. Judging by the Shooters Shoot’s COMP estimate of 58.2%, the horse has a good chance of running away with this one if he can get enough of an early lead. #6 Honor A.P. is a late threat with an LP estimate of 29.5%, who came in second to Authentic by two lengths in the San Felilpe in April. The wild card in this race is Anneau D’or, who recorded a field high final speed figure of 102 in a second place finish at Santa Anita last November in the BC Juvenile, indicating the horse has the most potential speed in the field. However, Anneau D’or will have to do much better than his performance in the Arkansas Derby in May, when he came in 5th by 9th lengths. The trainer, Wright, is only a 5% graded stakes winner.