Travers Stakes, Sat., Aug. 8

Here are the projections for today’s $1 mil. Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the main track for three-year-olds. The program is favoring #6 Tiz the Law with a 50.22% total win probability. The horse shows dominance in all phases with 63% final speed and 69% COMP estimates along with a 47% historical winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. At 1-1 Tiz the Law would be an underlay, who likely will settle to 3-5 or lower for final odds. Tiz the Law is only horse receiving a check according to FIT2, which it does for several categories, including 1st ranked in SPD and WP, COMP above 50% and LP% above 40%. The only other horse in the conversation is #4 Max Player, who placed 3rd after Tiz the Law in the shortened Belmont Stakes on Jun. 20. The M/L likes Uncle Chuck at 2.5-1, who is undefeated in two starts after winning the Los Alamos Derby at 1 1/8 mi. by four lengths on  July 4. Uncle Chuck is trained by Bob Baffert, who has had the hot hand of late, winning the Whitney Stakes with Improbable and the Shared Belief Stakes with A Thousand Words last weekend.