Kentucky Derby Preview, Thurs., May 5

On Saturday, May 7th, is the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features the best three-year olds in the country, including Florida Derby winner, White Abarrio, Wood Memorial Winner, Mo Donegal, Santa Anita Derby winner, Taiba, Toyota Blue Grass winner, Zandon, and Arkansas Derby winner, Cyberknife, among others. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #6 Messier in this race with a total win probability of 18.79%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 38.6% and also 1^st in COMP at 45.3%. Second is #12 Taiba with a 15.4% total win probability, who projects second in final speed at 33.7% and 1^st in winning percentage at 9.4% after winning the Santa Anita Derby. The horse received a FIT2 check mark for ranking among the two best horses in both final speed and winning percentage. Third is #1 Mo Donegal with a 12.24% win probability, who projects third in final speed at 18.6% but first in LP at 44.4%, for which it earned at FIT2 checkmark. Fourth is #15 White Abarrio with an 8.5% total win probability, who is only showing strength in E1 and E2 with estimates of 25.3% and 30.9%. In the final analysis, it appears the Kentucky Derby winner will be one of the two horses coming out of Santa Anita in Messier and Taiba. The program gives a slight edge to Messier for its top final speed estimate and for its fairly strong estimates in E1 and E2 of 27.3% and 27.8%. However, its final speed estimate is somewhat inflated because of the horse’ higher risk, which is reflected in its CV value of 11.67%. That and its low win percentage explain why Messier is being discounted at 8-1 on the money line, not to mention the horse finishing second to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby. Today’s Washington Post had a positive article on Messier, saying a few things: that he had the best lineage for the classic distance; that he’s progressed in each of his races; that he’s a stalker, which is the best running style to have; that he had a +100 Brisnet final speed figure. The Post pointed out that horses with plus 100 Bris speed figures won nineteen out of the last twenty-two races. Another horse with a +100 speed figure is Taiba, who has a comparable final speed estimate to Messier at 33.7% but with lower risk. Those who say that it’s a negative that the horse had had only two starts are not being real. Taiba won the Santa Anita Derby with the highest final speed figure in the field, while beating the favorite in the race in Messier, who was around 1-1. The other reason to like both Messier and Taiba is their strong COMP values at 45.3% and 32%, indicating superiority in terms of their component speed figures in the aggregate. Mo Donegal is another strong contender with the best late speed profile for the distance of 1 ¼ mi. The question with him is whether he will be able to get clear of traffic coming out of post one and will he be forwardly placed enough, so that he will be able to make his big run in time. White Abbario does not appear to have enough speed in this race compared to the top three contenders, getting 0% for its final speed projection and only 7% for COMP. Regarding the top M/L picks in Zandon and Epicenter, they don’t have the data to support the valuations at 3-1 and 7-2. If they did, their total win probabilities would be around 25%, and they’re at 6.44% and only 4.08% for Epicenter. As the workouts of both horses in the last month have been just ok, it begs the question how these horses are going to step up so significantly that they can beat Messier, Taiba or Mo Donegal. The final selections are #6 Messier, #12 Taiba, #1 Mo Donegal and #15 White Abarrio.