The program had a good result today in race 10 at Gulfstream, a $16K claiming race on the turf for four-year-olds, with #3 Belgrano at 5-1 as its top selection. With a total win probability of 27.6%, the horse beat out the favorite #1 Peacock Kitten at 1-1 as well as #11 TheMighty Judge at 2-1. In the race, #1 Peacock Kitten and #9 Devoted Kitten broke quickest from the gate and led onto the back stretch, while Belgrano stalked on the inside two lengths back. Belgrano made a four wide bid around the far turn and then dueled with Devoted Kitten down the stretch before prevailing by a head. Only with the PHW Turf Program could Belgrano have been spotted in this race, showing its effectiveness in filtering just turf data.
The Handicap Wizard had the winner of the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby (G2) with its top selection of #3 Wells Bayou at 4-1, who went wire-to-wire in victory. #10 Enforceable was the favorite at 3-1. The program also had the show horse correct in #10 Modernist. Here are the final odds and results.
Here are the projections for today’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. Out of a field of sixteen horses, the program likes Brad Cox trained #3 Wells Bayou as the first choice with a total win probability of 28.62% versus 8-1 on the M/L. The horse finished a length behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest Stakes with a final time of 1:43.01 for 1 1/16 mi and previously won an allowance race at 1 mi. Wells Bayou has the highest SPD estimate in the field at 37.6% along with superior E1, E2 and COMP figures of 82.4%, 31% and 74%. He is also the classiest horse with a 14% Winning Percentage. Second is #10 Enforceable with a 15.6% win probability, who finished second to Mr. Monomy in the quickest of the Risen Star divisions on Feb. 15. Prior to that he won the Lecomte at the Fairgrounds on Jan. 18. Enforceable has the second highest SPD estimate at 28.8% and the strongest LP estimate at 27.6%. Weak, however, is his COMP at 1.2%, meaning that his simulated component speed estimates together do not stack up well against the other horses. The next three horses are Bill Mott trained #14 Modernist, winner of his last two, including the slower division of the Risen Star, with a 8.49% win probability, #6 Silver State with 7.84% and #9 Portos with 6.95%. Todd Pletcher trained Portos could be interesting after closing well from well off the pace to finish 3rd in the 1 1/8 mi. Withers at Aqueduct on Feb. 1. In sum, Wells Bayou’s superior speed data suggests he would have significant value at his 8-1 M/L price when his fair value is 3-1. None of the other horses rate well as far as speed, except Enforceable, whose component speed figures indicate weakness apart from LP. Click on the link in the lower right to see the projections in full-resolution.
Here are the results of the $350K G2 Azeri Stakes for four-year-old fillies and mares and the $1 mil. G2 Rebel Stakes for three-year-olds at Oaklawn yesterday. The program had the winner of the Azeri with its top selection in Serengetti Empress at 9-5 versus a win probability of 41.02%. In the Rebel, the program had it as a close contest between #3 Basin at 9-2, #1 Nadal at 4-5 and #4 Silver Prospector at 4-1, all with win probabilities of around 22%. Nadal won, while Basin finished 3rd. In terms of valuation, Nadal was a good choice to win because of relatively strong speed metrics, particularly E1, E2 and COMP, and low risk but was arguably overbet at 4-5. On the replay, it appeared #2 Excession cut-off both #4 Silver Prospector and #6 Three Technique coming out of the far turn, but the Stewards did nothing about it, not even review the race.
The program did very well at Parx today, having winners with first selections in five out of nine non-maiden races. Here are the results. The 4th race came down to a photo between #5 Eclipsed Moon and #6 Mickey T, with Mickey T winning. Those were the two horses in the exacta, which paid $39.40.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 