Author: handicapwizard

Today features two Kentucky Derby prep races for three-year olds, namely the $300k G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Downs.  The Gotham Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt, appears to be a wide open contest according to the program, with no horse receiving a win probability higher than 20%. The top  selection is Attachment Rate at 9/2 on the M/L versus a 18.93% win probability, who, despite being a maiden, has the highest final speed estimate at 26.3% after recording a field-best 102 final speed figure in his last race. He also has the top LP estimate in the field at 38.8%. Next is Montaux Traffic at 6-1 on the M/L compared to a 17.66% win probability, who comes into the race with two wins in three starts, including a stakes win in the Jimmy Winfield at 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 8. The third selection is Mischievous Alex at 3-1 on the M/L versus a 15.4% win probability, who won the Swale Stakes at 7f at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the Parx Juvenile at 7f at Parx on Nov. 5.

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The Tampa Bay Derby has two proven horses in Chance It at 5-2 on the M/L and Sole Violate at 2-1 on the M/L, who will be battling it out. Chance It was the winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on Jan. 4, while Sole Violante won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. at Tampa Bay on Feb. 8. The speed advantage goes to Chance It with a 43.4% final speed estimate, thanks to three triple-digit final speed figures in his last three races. However, Sole Violate, is not far behind at 24.3% final speed estimate after posting final speed figures of 102 and 100 in his last two races. The M/L appears to be favoring Sole Violate because of late speed strength, showing a 35.2% LP estimate, which is favorable to the 1 1/16 mi. distance. The surprise of the race may be Unrighteous, the son of Violence, who with a final speed estimate of 15.8% is cheap at 20-1 on the M/L.

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The Handicap Wizard finished on a strong note today at Gulfstream, having winners with its first selections in the last three races, including the $300K G2 Gulfstream Mile on dirt, the $200K G2 Mac Diamida Stakes on turf and the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on dirt. The program had the winners Mr. Freeze with a a 29.19% win probability at 5-2, Zulu Alpha with a 33.98% win probability at 1-1 and Ete Indien with a 27.99% win probability at 7-2. Ete Indien became the first selection after the scratch of #12 Chance It. Ete Indien beat the favorite #5 Dennis’ Moment at 6-5. 

Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes 

Mac Diamida Stakes

Fountain of Youth Stakes

 

 

Here are the projections for today’s $400K Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The results largely follow the order of the horses that rate best by speed, with #12 Chance It as the first selection at 7-2 on the M/L, following by #8 Ete Indien second at 8-1 and #6 As Seen On TV third at 9-2. The M/L favorite, however, is #5 Dennis Moment at 2-1, who had a bullet workout on this track on Feb. 23 of 0:48 for 4f. The horse’s preferred status is surprising, considering that his speed estimates are low compared to the field and he does not have a stellar Winning Percentage at only 8.6%. Dennis Moment won the G3 Iroquis at 1 1/16 mi. at Churchill on Sept. 14, but finished a distance 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November at Santa Anita. He has not run again since then. Horses that offer value are Ete Indien because of his favorable speed estimates of 31.9% for SPD, 48.5% for E1, 28.9% for E2, 18.3% for LP and 31.7% for COMP. By speed, he appears to have a fair value around 5-2 or better. Another is Gear Jockey at 20-1 on the M/L, whose Winning Percentage is second highest at 15.7%, which would put him at 6-1 or 7-1 fair value. As a long shot, #7 Country Grammer at 15-1 has the strongest LP estimate at 38.1% and has shown good progression in terms of final speed figures from 72 in his first race to 94 in his last.

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In the two main races for three-year olds this past weekend, the $250K Withers at Aqueduct and the $250K Holy Bull at Gulfstream, the program had the tri-fecta in the Holy Bull and a fourth selection won the Withers. At 5-1 #3 Max Player won the Withers with a total winning probability of 10.56%, which made it an overlay. The horse had strong late speed, as indicated by its 64% winning LP estimate. This is what happened in the race, with Max Player running down the field in the final stretch. The horse paid $12.80 for the win.

In the Holy Bull at Gulfsream, the race went according to projections. Thanks to a 48% Winning Percentage, #3 Tiz the Law at 6-5 had the highest winning probability in the field at 32.65%. Second was #4 Ete Indien at 23.95% and third #1 Toleda at 20%. That was the order of the tri-fecta, even though Toleda had lower odds than Ete Indien.

Who would have thought that today was as easy as betting on the Baffert Horse to win? That was how it went in the Pegasus World Cup at 1 1/8 mi. on dirt with #10 Mucho Gusto at 3-1 under the jockeying of Irad Ortiz Jr. upsetting #6 Higher Power at 5-2. The Handicap Wizard rated Higher Power as best in the field along with the market with a total winning probability of 15.38%, which made him an overlay. Mucho Gusto was a big overlay at 3-1 versus his winning probability of 7.98%. So why did the program miss Mucho Gusto? The main reason is that his speed estimates did not compare well against those of the other horses in the field, even though the horse posted three plus 100 final speed figures in his last starts. His consistency actually worked against him, which compressed the results of his final speed simulation into a tighter range, whereas Higher Power, War Story and Tax all projected better with more risk. Mucho Gusto did have the third highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, but it did not help him being under 10%. His last workout at Santa Anita on Jan. 16 was solid at 1:11 for 6f. As predicted in the preview, War Story did offer value in the race, going off even higher than expected at 15-1 versus his 10.9% total win probability. Had Joel Rosario not allowed the horse to get many lengths behind in the early stages of the race, War Story would have been in a better position to get place instead of having to settle for show.  And another of the horses recommended in the preview, #8 Mr. Freeze, did better than expected by coming in second at 7-1. 

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