Author: handicapwizard

The Handicap Wizard is tearing it up in South Florida today with another winner in race 6 at Tampa, an $8K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. #1 Caseyoudidntknow at 2-1 was the model’s top selection by a wide margin at 36.73% winning probability, thanks to a 61.1% SPD and a 79.6% LP estimate. In the race, Caseyoudidntknow lagged behind the leaders until the final stretch, when she came on strong down the center to overtake #13 Mardi Gras Girl at 13-1 at the wire. The horse paid $6.60 for the win.

After having another winner with its top selection in the 3rd at Gulfstream with #4 Castagno at 5-2, the Handicap Wizard found value in the 5th race, a $12.5K maiden claiming race at 6f for three year old fillies on the dirt, in the second selection—#8 Two Cents Worth at 6-1. With a total winning probability of 34.14%, which was only slightly below that of the top selection, Two Cents Worth offered good value either to win or to place. In the race, the horse led coming out of the gate and went on to win by seven lengths in a no contest. Two Cents Worth paid $15.40 for the win, while the place paid $7.00.

Continuing the winning streak on Friday, the Handicap Wizard Grey program had another successful result in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $5K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The model had #3 Moonwalker at 7-2 as it top selection with a total winning probability of 25.28%, making it a slight underlay. In the race, Moonwalker broke well from the gate and was among the leaders heading down the back stretch along with the live odds favorite, #3 Arathorn at 8-5. Moonwalker then put it into high gear going around the far turn and never looked back, winning by two lengths in a fairly easy contest. The horse paid $9.60 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard Turf program got off to a good start at Gulfstream today in the 1st, a $25K maiden claiming race at 5f for fillies and mares four-years old an up. In a field of twelve, the program had #8 Lady Noy as its top selection with a 29.07% total winning probability. The horse was at a discount compared to its 5-1 odds. In the race, Lady Noy broke well from the gate, but #1 Miss Loretta took over the lead on the back stretch. After a scorching opening quarter of 21 seconds and change, Lady Noy fell back going around the far turn, only to re-engage along the rail down the stretch. Beating two horses with lower odds in #9 Cookie Cove at 9-5 and #6 Sabina Park at 7-2, Lady Noy paid $12.00 for the win. The $2 exacta with #12 Dancingwithjimmieb paid $612.40. It was possible to find Dancingwithjimmieb in the exacta because of her 3rd highest COMP estimate in the field at 12.5% behind #6 Sabina Park at 15% and Lady Noy at 69%.

Another interesting race today was the 5th at Gulfstream, a $19K claiming race at 7f for four-year olds and up on the dirt. #6 Smoke and Gloat at 7-5 was the live odds and model favorite, but was an overlay according to his 35% winning probability. There was value in the second and third program selections in #4 Diamond Majesty and #5 Animal Trick  both at 15-1, who had winning probabilities of 23.72% and 18.75% (around 3-1 and 4-1 fair values). One could have taken the horses as combined win or place selections, considering that the odds were substantial for both. In the race, Smoke and Gloat broke well from the gate and led going down the backstretch. Animal Trick stalked Smoke and Gloat half a length back on the inside going around the far turn, while Diamond Majesty made progress to close the gap on the leaders to a length. Down the stretch there was a three-way duel between Smoke and Gloat, Animal Trick and #1 Dr. Harlan at 4-1, before Animal Trick dug in inside in the last sixteenth to beat Smoke and Gloat by a length. Animal Trick paid $33.40 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $112.60.