The Handicap Wizard had an excellent night at Churchill Downs, winning with top selections in the Matt Winn Stakes in the 5th with #6 Mr. Money, in the Fleur de Lis Handicap in the 7th with #3 Elate, in the Stephen Foster Stakes in the 8th with #4 Seeking the Soul, and in Regret Stakes in the 9th for fillies with #5 Hard Legacy. Excluding the three maiden races, it had a 57% hit rate for a 130% ROI ($32 profit vs. $14 in total wagers). See the previous post for the selections.
Here are free selections for Churchill hill tonight. The card features several stakes races, including the G3 Matt Winn Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. for three-year olds in the 5th and the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds and up in the 8th.
Continuing with the ROI theme, #8 Lawyer Drill in the 8th at Gulfstream was offering good value at 9-1 odds versus a total winning probability of about 20%, thanks to strong E1 and E1 component estimates of 60.6% and 35.1% and a 20% Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes. As a result, his expected ROI was near 100%. In the race, Lawyer Drill broke well from the gate and was second until the half mile mark, when he took the lead. He held on all the way to the wire, in spite of a challenge from #6 Indy Rules down the stretch. As a second selection, Lawyer Drill paid $20.80 for the win.
The best race scenario one can have with the Handicap Wizard is for the top selection to also have the highest expected ROI. That happened in the 2nd race today at Woodbine, a $15K maiden race on the turf at 1 mi. for fillies and mares three-years old and up. Despite there being spotty speed data, the Handicap Wizard rated #1 Millbank Magic first with a total winning probability of 34%, boosted by a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 66%. According to that that metric, the horse’s fair value was under 1-1. Given his 7-1 odds, however, Millbank Magic was likely seen as risky by the public because of a poor performance two races back, when he put up a final speed figure of 32. In the race, Millbank Magic squeezed through a gap coming out of the far turn that allowed him to break away from the field. Down the stretch, Millbank Magic dueled with #4 Powerhouse at 9-1. In the end, Millbank Magic’s class strength held up, paying $16.10 for the win.
Though maiden races generally have horses with greater risk, opportunities can still be found in such races from inefficient pricing by the market. That was the case in race 5 at Churchill today, a $50K maiden claiming race for three-year olds and up on the turf at one mile. According to ROI analysis, there were two horses with high value in the race, #3 Honos Man at 17-1 versus a total winning probability of 20% and a winning final speed probability of 34% and #6 Carbon Zero at 30-1 with a total winning probability of about 12%. As a third selection, Honos Man was the better choice for his speed. In the race, Honos Man took the lead at the half mile mark and went all the way to the wire, holding off a challenge from the heavy favorite, #9 Rock on Kitten at 4-5. The win paid $37.60, while the $2 exacta paid $108.80
Pro-Handicap Analytics 