Excluding the 1st race, which was a maiden special weight race that had no data, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in three out of seven races at Churchill yesterday, specifically, the 2nd, 5th and 8th races. The hit rate was 43% with a +21% ROI. This was on a day when long shots won three in the 3rd, 6th and 7th.
In race 6 at Parx today there was an excellent example of how the ROI strategy with the Handicap Wizard software can be applied successfully and profitably. According to the program’s ROI analysis, the horse that had the most value was #1 Stormbeam, who had a total winning probability of 13% versus 20-1 odds, resulting in an expected ROI of 171%. The odds put his implied winning probability at only 4%, yet the horse had a final winning speed probability of 20%. From the simulation of final speed figures, his fair value was around 4-1. Qualitatively, the horse seemed like a good candidate, too, after responding well to a trainer change in mid May by positing a career best final speed figure of 90 at the end of May. In the race, Stormbeam hung back until the far turn before making his move, when he rallied wide. The horse blasted by the leaders down the stretch in a convincing win. Stormbeam paid $42.60. This is exactly the kind of horse a Handicap Wizard user should be focusing on, especially when priced at a substantial discount to the SPD estimate.
The Handicap Wizard did well in the Belmont Stakes, having the three top finishers among its top four selections, including #1 Joevia at 21-1 as the show horse. The $2 exacta paid $96, while the $0.50 tri-fecta from a four-horse box paid $622.00.
From the Preview:
We’d also like to point out that the Handicap Wizard hit the tri-fecta straight with the order of its final speed estimates.
Here’s the link to the video analysis of the Belmont Stakes on Youtube.
For a limited time, we are going to be offering free selections on Friday and Saturday at selected tracks. Here are the selections for Saturday, June 8. Click on the link under the desired track.
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Gulfstream
Laurel Park
Monmouth
Parx
Santa Anita
Friday, June 7 Selections
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Gulfstream
Santa Anita
On Saturday is the last leg of the triple crown, the Belmont Stakes, run at 1 1/2 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds with a purse of $1.5 million. The race features Preakness winner, War of Will, from the Mark Casse barn, Wood Memorial winner and 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, Tacitus, second place finisher in the Peter Pan, Sir Winston, and Preakness runner-up, Everfast. If people thought that this race would be a cake-walk for War of Will after his Preakness win, they would be mistaken, because the data indicates otherwise. After excluding Joevia from the calculations temporarily because of high variances with the horse’s E1 and E2 figures from two outliers, the race comes down to between War of Will, Sir Winston and Tacitus. War of Will has a slight edge overall because of his best-in-the-field winning percentage at 28.2% with low risk, while Sir Winston and Tacitus have edges in speed, reflected in their final speed estimates of 40.3% and 34%. Sir Winston is an interesting choice, in view of the fact that much of horse’s 101 final speed rating in the last race (the highest among last starts) was due to a high late pace figure of 114, boosting the horse’s late speed estimate to 32.4%. That factors well with the distance of this race at 1 1/2 mi. Along with Sir Winston and Tacitus, Joevia does have a fair amount of speed with a 20% final speed estimate, which is a truer figure than his inflated component estimates. According to this metric, the horse deserves a little respect when he is not getting any from his 30-1 M/L, which compares to his winning percentage of 3.9%. If you run the model and exclude component estimates (0.6 SPD, 0.4 WP), Joevia, ranks ahead of War of Will, though behind Tacitus and Sir Winston. Two other horses with the potential to surprise are Master Fencer, who’s late running ability was on par with Maximum Security’s down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby and Tax, who has shown speed in his previous races despite his poor showing in the Kentucky Derby, which could be excused for the wet track. In sum, the top selections are War of Will, Sir Winston and Tacitus, with Joevia figuring third or fourth.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 