We have created an update for version 4.0 that has a user setting for alpha for exponential smoothing, which is now set at 0.25. It was not available before because it was an experimental setting in testing, where the results had been positive, though inconclusive. Based on recent race results, we’re more comfortable now using 0.25 as the default for alpha as a change that enhances performance. Any users that have purchased version 4.0 are eligible for the update for free.
Author: handicapwizard
As an update to 4.0 users, we tested the 0.25 alpha setting again over the weekend for the exponential model compared to the 0.5 setting at four tracks, specifically, Belmont, Churchill, Gulfstream and Santa Anita, using data for five recent cards at each. The study considered all races, including maidens. The model had positive ROI results with its top selections at Belmont (+15.1), at Gulfstream (+30%), and negative at Santa Anita (-5.5%) and Churchill (-33%). Separately, on Sat., June 1, the program had positive ROI% at Belmont (+2.0%), Gulfstream (+4.0) and Churchill (+25%), while negative at Arlington (-30%).
According to this latest data, it appears that the exponential model does better with the 0.25 alpha setting than at 0.5. For more information on the results, see the bottom of the HW 4.0 Studies page.
The program had two good results worth mentioning at Gulfstream today in the 8th and the 10th. Beginning with the 10th, a $12.5K optional claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year olds who had won only one race other than its maiden, #5 Kong Style was the betting favorite from the minute the odds went live, going as low as 1, before settling at 2-1. Yet, the horse was not the favorite in the model, which favored #6 Fortunate Friends at 6-1 followed by #7 Glory of Florida at 6-1 also. This was one instance where the Handicap Wizard and the BPPR were in agreement with their top selections, but was not the live odds favorite. The betting suggested that the public knew something about the current form of Kong Style that was not being reflected in his PP stats. It turned out to be a thrilling race, with Fortunate Friends beating Kong Style by a nose at the wire with the last head bob. The horse paid $14.00 for the win. With that winning selection, the program had a positive ROI for selections at GP on the day.
In the 8th, a $6.5K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, there was a mind-boggling result of the tri-fecta, which paid $365.20 for a $0.50 wager, where the Handicap Wizard had the top three finishers in its top three selections but with the 1st and the 3rd reversed. The odds of the winning horse was 5-1 for #5 Tuesday Rose, 16-1 for #10 Cotton Tooyah as place and 19-1 for #4 Dancing Noelle as show. The two latter horses had implied winning probabilities from their odds of 6% and 5% and Coefficient of Variance ratios of 20% and 15%, indicating a lot of risk with those selections. Nevertheless, the program was only one combination away from hitting a 730-1 equivalent tri-fecta straight (though it did hit it with a box), which is an astounding result for the accuracy of the algorithm. The WP setting was set at 6 races back instead of 10 back.
The Handicap Wizard had winners with its top choices in four out of six graded stakes races at Belmont today, including in the $125K Mike Lee Stakes in the 9th with #6 Blindwillie McTell and in the $200K Commentary Stakes in the 10th with #7 Pat on the Back. Blindwillie McTell paid $7.00, while Pat on the Back paid $6.80. The program hit the exacta in the 9th with #6 Blindwillie McTell and #4 Funny Guy, with the $2 exacta paying $31.80.
9th: Mike Lee Stakes
10th: Commentator Stakes
4th: Bouwerie Stakes
5th: Mt. Vernon Stakes
The Handicap Wizard had a successful result in the lone stakes race at Belmont today in the 9th with the Paradise Creek Stakes, a $100K race at 7f on the turf for three-year olds. The program hit the exacta with its top two choices of #4 Pole Setter at 4-1 and #5 Pulsate at 16-1. Pole Setter led the race from start to finish, while Pulsate came up late to finish strongly for second. The $2 exacta paid $148.50. The post-time favorite, #4 Fog of War at 4-5, was no factor in the race.
Another race worth mentioning at Belmont was the following race—the 10th—a $62.5K allowance race 6f on the turf for three-year olds and up. The Handicap Wizard had 13-1 #2 Mai Ty One On as its top choice with a 21% winning probability. The market was discounting the horse perhaps because of its lower winning percentage at only 8.5%, yet Mai Ty One On had the highest final speed estimate at 47.7%. After getting boxed in along the rail at the top of the stretch with three horses in front of him, Mai Ty One On had to veer around the eventual winner, #9 Dr. Shane, toward the center of the track to find running room before launching a bid that fell just short at the wire. Mai Ty One On paid $13.60 for the place. This is exactly the kind of opportunity that the horse player should be looking for with the program. If not for the troubled trip, Mai Ty One On likely would have won and at long odds.
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