Author: handicapwizard

When it comes to winning with long shots, it’s often seen as an act of magic akin to pulling a rabbit out of a hat. One place with the Handicap Wizard to look for long shot prospects is in the LP projection, like in the 7th race at Oaklawn today, a $40K alw race at 6ft on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The horse with the longest odds in this race was #3 Go West at 37-1, who had a total win probability of 7.83%, translating into odds of 12-1. However, the horse projected first in LP with a win estimate of 43.2% (about 7-5 strength), earning itself a FIT2 checkmark for its statistical superiority in that metric. In the race, this is exactly what happened with Go West turning on the afterburner down the stretch to come up for second at a big price, paying $27.40 for the place. Thanks to the Handicap Wizard’s projections, this user was able to see that late pace strength with the heavily discounted horse horse and take advantage of it.

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Here are the results of the program in the $250K G3 Lecomte Stakes today at the Fairgrounds . The program had the tri-fecta horses in its first four selections, which were #13 Built at 5-2, #11 Disco Time at 9-5 and #1 Innovator at 16-1. The winning horse, Disco Time, was the third selection. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $56.00.

The program had an excellent result in the 2nd at Oaklawn today, a $12.K claiming race at 6ft on the dirt for fillies and mares four-year-old and up, with its first selection of #11 Spite Lite at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 21.15%, translating to odds of 7-2. Spite Lite projected 2nd in final speed with a 26.7% win estimate (about 3-1 strength) while having a 28.7% COMP (5-2 strength), a 15.2% win percentage and relative low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.1%. In the race, Spite Lite went last to first while weaving through traffic out of the far turn into the stretch. The horse paid $16.80 for the win.

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There was another excellent result for the program in race 7 at Santa Anita today, a $20K OC at 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-old fillies and mares, with the program having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #7 Love Our Family at 5-1 and #4 Nothing is Forever at 2-1. Love Our Family made a three-wide move around the far turn to take the lead down the stretch before nearly being caught by a surging Nothing is Forever at the wire. The $2 exa. paid $53.80.

The program had another good result today, this time in the 2nd at Gulfstream, a $25K claiming race at 5f four four-year-olds fillies and mares, having both the exacta and tri-fecta horses, though the exacta order was reversed. The first selection was #3 Fortuna Belle at 6-1, the second #2 Royally Blue at 8-5 and the third #4 Jokes Up at 5-1. The $1 ex. paid $18.60 while the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $32.55.