Pro-Handicap Analytics announces that its second-tier contender notes have been included in the Kentucky Derby Analysis Package for the race at Churchill Downs.

These notes deliver focused insight into key mid-tier runners whose probability structure, pace dynamics, and form cycles make them legitimate factors beneath the top tier. With the addition of these second-tier evaluations, the Derby package now presents a complete field perspective, capturing both primary contenders and the most dangerous value-driven horses capable of shaping the race outcome.

Pro-Handicap Analytics is pleased to offer the Kentucky Derby Analysis Package for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. It’s now available on the Purchase Page for download. This six-page PDF report is engineered with precision for racing’s most important stage. The package features the Track-IQ Report for the Kentucky Derby, delivering precision model odds and quantitative analysis to define pace structure and the projected winning profile, alongside Primary and Second-Tier Contender Commentary/Notes that distill each leading runner through form, connections, and preparation. The Overlay Map provides a clear, field-wide visual of probability and positioning, while the Overlay Map Notes elevate that view—covering all 20 entrants and breaking down each horse through its underlying metrics, calling out true overlays, extreme statistical signals, pace advantages, and structural vulnerabilities across the field. They don’t just describe the data—they interpret it, isolating where value is supported, where it is fragile, and how the race is most likely to unfold from a betting perspective. *Note that the model odds generated in the Overlay Map are from the baseline or “universal” model before refinement and specialization in the Track-IQ report for a 1 1/4 mi. route race on the dirt at Churchill. These odds paint a slightly different picture of the race and may indicate horses that have the potential to surprise. **The Track-IQ report has been updated to incorporate a Derby-specific long-route model, refining projections for 10-furlong stamina, pace attrition, and large-field dynamics (4/27).

The Track-IQ framework had excellent results today at Gulfstream with 100% coverage of the winner with Primary/Secondary/Tertiary/Quarternary selections in all 9 races covered. These results demonstrate high model accuracy for dirt and turf and elite contender identification. Below is a table of the winning horses and their tier positions as well as the winning exacta results.

Click to access gpx0425_trackiq_full_zip_pipeline.pdf

GPX0425 — Results Table (R2–R11)

R	Winner	Tier	Win $	Exacta	Tiers (1st–2nd)	Exacta $
2	#6 LEIGH’S LAST HERO	Q	39.40	6–11	Q – ❌	—
4	#5 MAITRE D	P	4.80	5–4	P – S	18.40
5	#5 PAPA GOLF	Q	13.00	5–7	Q – ❌	—
6	#5 NIC’S STYLE	P	2.20	5–4	P – S	2.60
7	#3 MY BOY STAR	S	18.20	3–9	S – T	63.40
8	#5 TANK	S	7.60	5–6	S – P	39.40
9	#5 MYTHICAL	P	2.20	5–8	P – ❌	—
10	#8 DAMON’S MOUND	P	3.40	8–1	P – T	13.00
11	#9 SOUPER ZONDA	T	5.60	9–8	T – P	45.80

The Track-IQ framework had an excellent result today in the 7th at Gulfstream, a $20K Clm at 5f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, having the winner with its Primary selection of #7 Raydar Control at 18-1 versus fair-value odds of 2.7-1. The horse had high win probabilities in all the key speed metrics, including a field-best SPD win probability of 32% as well as 29% E1 and 15% E2. These are exactly the type of win probabilities you want for a sprint, all pointing to between 2-1 and 4-1 strength in terms of odds. The market discounted the horse for having higher risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 13%. But even with that risk the horse was majorly undervalued. In the race, Raydar Control broke moderately and then led through the opening quarter, posting a quick time of 21.41. He then increased his lead around the far turn before coasting on to victory by one length. Raydar Control paid $39.00 for the win. This successful outcome validates again the framework’s specialized approach to Gulfstream and sprints on dirt.

Pro-Handicap Analytics today announced a breakthrough in its simulation model, advancing how race performance is measured and understood within its Track-IQ platform. The updated system more precisely captures how races are actually decided—by how horses finish—bringing a new level of clarity and realism to probability-based handicapping.

The refinement enhances how performance is interpreted across different levels of competition, ensuring that high-quality efforts at the upper tiers of racing are properly valued while lower-level results are kept in appropriate context. At the same time, the model maintains sensitivity to recent form, creating a more balanced and stable view of each horse’s true ability without overreacting to short-term fluctuations.

The recent Oaklawn Handicap served as a key testing ground for the updated model. In that race, the simulation produced a contender structure and fair-value odds that closely mirrored the final tote board, including the correct identification of the race favorite (Sovereignty) and a realistic ordering of the primary contenders. This alignment provided a strong real-world validation of the model’s improved ability to interpret both class and performance.

With this breakthrough, Pro-Handicap Analytics delivers a more intelligent and consistent simulation framework. The result is improved contender identification, stronger alignment with real-world race outcomes, and fair-value odds that more accurately reflect both current condition and underlying class—further strengthening the platform’s ability to provide actionable, data-driven insight to serious horseplayers.