The BAQ0503 Track-IQ report delivered a well-balanced and consistent performance across the full card, with all 12 race winners appearing within the model’s Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, or Quaternary tiers. The Primary tier accounted for the largest share of winners, while additional victories from the Secondary and Tertiary tiers contributed meaningful depth and captured several mid-priced outcomes. This distribution reflects a model that is not overly reliant on a single tier and is capable of identifying both leading contenders and competitive alternatives. While some exacta combinations included runners outside the top four tiers, the majority of race outcomes were contained within the model’s structured framework. Overall, the results indicate a stable and comprehensive approach to race analysis, with broad coverage and a balanced representation of winning profiles across the card. The exacta $ results below are for $1 exactas.

Click to access baq0503_trackiq_merged.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/BAQ050326USA-EQB.html

📊 BAQ0503 – FULL RESULTS (WITH HORSE NAMES)

Race	Winner (Tier)	Win $	Exacta	Exacta $	Tier Structure
1	#6 Eliminate (P)	$4.42	6–3 (Eliminate – Castle Chaos)	$7.04	P – T
2	#6 Trust Issues (T)	$6.04	6–3 (Trust Issues – Shoot the Nickel)	$13.41	T – S
3	#2 Secured Landing (S)	$3.90	2–1 (Secured Landing – Sagamore Mischief)	$12.43	S – ❌
4	#3 Kinetic (Q)	$3.30	3–2 (Kinetic – Georgia Magic)	$8.53	Q – S
5	#6 Lupine (P)	$3.98	6–5 (Lupine – Five Dozen Roses)	$6.85	P – S
6	#4 Sacrosanct (P)	$6.64	4–6 (Sacrosanct – Vibrant Express)	$12.12	P – T
7	#3 Antiquarian (S)	$6.34	3–2 (Antiquarian – Bishops Bay)	$5.77	S – T
8	#2 City Girl (P)	$9.02	2–1 (City Girl – Dynamic Pricing)	$9.27	P – S
9	#9 Protective Custody (P)	$8.88	9–7 (Protective Custody – Soul Dance)	$12.38	P – ❌
10	#5 Grammy Girl (S)	$9.48	5–7 (Grammy Girl – Mystic Lake)	$17.36	S – Q
11	#6 Love Cervere (T)	$7.66	6–7 (Love Cervere – Cynane)	$35.39	T – ❌
12	#11 Lotus Petal (T)	$6.92	11–4 (Lotus Petal – Autonome)	$10.28	T – P

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📊 CORE STATISTICS

✅ COVERAGE (MOST IMPORTANT)

👉 Winners inside P/S/T/Q: 12 / 12 → 100%

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🏆 WIN % BY TIER

• Primary (P): 5 / 12 → 41.7%
• Secondary (S): 3 / 12 → 25.0%
• Tertiary (T): 3 / 12 → 25.0%
• Quaternary (Q): 1 / 12 → 8.3%

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🎯 EXACTA COVERAGE

• Fully inside P/S/T/Q: 7 / 12 → 58%
• Misses (2nd horse outside): 5 races

The Track-IQ framework had a nice result today in the first of two stakes races at Belmont at Aqueduct in the 8th, the $175K G3 Beaugay Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years-old and up, having the winner with its primary selection of #2 City Girl at 7-2 versus fair value odds of 0.9-1. The horse had a very high 92% win probability for LP along with low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 2%. The horse’s late speed dominance proved the difference in the race with City Girl winning by a length over the favorite #1 Dynamic Pricing, the other Chad Brown horse. City Girl paid $9.02 for the win.

In race 9, a $55K OClm at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, there was a similar story with #9 Protective Custody winning at 3-1 as an overlay compared to Model Odds of 1.4-1. Protective Custody had dominant SPD and LP win probabilities of 48% and 70% in a race where the horse was clearly undervalued in view of her superior current form relative to the field. Protective Custody paid $8.88 for the win.

Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby in a shocker, emerging from the back of the field as the race unraveled in front of him. He broke without urgency and settled near the rear while the leaders set a demanding pace, the field tightly packed. Turning for home, the frontrunners began to weaken, shifting the race from a contest of speed to one of endurance. Golden Tempo advanced steadily and sustained a long, grinding rally down the stretch on the outside part of the track as rivals tired around him. He had no structural support according to current form, but carried a 5.6% WP% (17-1 equivalent odds). That underlying probability proved enough to lift him past the field and into victory.

Here are today’s selections for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill according to the Track-IQ Report.

Ahead of the Derby weekend, we will go live on Fri. to cover the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill and action at other major tracks. Coverage will continue through the weekend with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The weather in Louisville is forecast to be cool but mostly dry, with decreasing rain chances following early-week showers. Friday (Oaks) will be partly sunny with highs near 64°F, while Saturday (Derby) is expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with cool temperatures near 61°F–65°F.