Category: Uncategorized

The Handicap Wizard Turf Program had the first and second place finishers in the Arlington Million, though in reverse order. #2 Magic Wand at 8-1 came out ahead with a 36.92% winning probability due to an advantage in the final winning speed estimate at 55.6%, while #3 Bricks and Mortar at 1-2 had a 30.9% winning probability, bolstered by a 51.2% Winning Percentage. Magic Wand trailed #10 Bandua and #5 Hunting Horn in third position for most of the race until the stretch, when he took the lead with under 1/2 furlong to go, only to be beaten by Bricks and Mortar at the wire.

 

Here is the full Arlington Million analysis.

ArlingtonMillionAnalysis

The Turf Program had a good result today in the 10th race at Arlington, the G1 $500K Secretariat Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The model had #4 The Last Zip at 27-1 as the top selection with a winning probability of 22.56%, followed by #7 Valid Point at 2-1 as the second selection with a 17.35% probability. In the race, The Last Zip led through the half mile and then as far as the stretch, before being overtaken by #2 Van Beethoven at 28-1 (a foreign horse with no data) and Valid Point, who charged down the center of the track to finish first. The Last Zip was third.

 

 

 

Here is the full analysis of the Arlington Million.

ArlingtonMillionAnalysis

 

 

We are re-offering the Handicap Wizard 4.0 Turf program on the Purchase page with the new grey color scheme. This program is geared strictly toward turf races by providing “apples to apples” comparisons in the turf data, using the same processes and algorithm as with the 4.0 version. It is recommended that the program be used jointly with the regular version, because there will be times when the turf data is incomplete. Of course, the regular version can handle turf races. It handles all races. However, the Turf Program gives a purely turf perspective, when the betting public generally does not differentiate between dirt and turf, which can give the user an edge with more precise analysis. Like with the regular version, this program is intended for users with intermediate to expert level handicapping ability.

To illustrate the value of the program, in the 1st race at Woodbine on July 3, 2019, the program had Mark Casse Trained, King and His Court, as its top selection with a total winning probability of 32.05% versus odds of more than 3-1. By contrast, Florida Won was the market favorite with odds of 1-1, but had a winning probability of just 16.12% according to the model. Thanks to a burst of speed down the stretch, King and His Court won the race, paying $9.70. He was clearly the best horse according to turf analysis in terms of speed with a 61.1% LP winning estimate and was essentially tied for the highest Winning Percentage.   

Another example was in the $1 mil. Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont on June 8, 2019, run at 1/4 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The model’s top selection was Bricks and Mortar with a winning probability of 27.65% versus odds of 7-5, who won, despite not having the most speed in the field. Bricks and Mortar had the most class, however, with a Winning Percentage of 51.7%, which the program recognized.

A third example was in the $100K River Memories Stake at Belmont on July 5, 2019, run at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year old fillies and mares. The program’s top selection was Semper Sententiae, who with a total winning probability of 33.02% won at 9-2.

 

All the results posted today were done using the 0.5 alpha setting in the program. This was to illustrate that the program is equally effective with 0.5 alpha as it is with 0.25 alpha, but for different reasons. Current and prospective users should review the posting today explaining the difference between the 0.25 and 0.5 alpha setting.