On Saturday is the $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at the classic distance of 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features a stellar field, including Tacitus, who is the morning-line favorite at 5-2. Tacitus was the winner of the Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby. Most recently, he placed second to Tax in the Jim Dandy stakes and was second to Sir Winston in the Belmont Stakes. Next is Code of Honor at 4-1 on the M/L, who won the G3 Dwyer at Belmont in his last race in early July. Before that, he finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Tax, Owendale and Mucho Gusto are all 6-1 on the money line. Tax, again, was the winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes on this same track at Saratoga over Tacitus. His only other graded stakes win was in the Withers at Aqueduct in February. Owendale won the Ohio Derby in his most recent start and previously was the winner of the Lexington at Keeneland. Mucho Gusto nearly beat Maximum Security his last time out in the Haskell in July. He has four wins in G3 races, including the Affirmed, the RB Lewis and the Bob Hope. Among the other horses, Highest Honors comes into the race on a two-race winning streak after winning the Curlin at Saratoga in July. Everfast gives it another try after second place finishes in the Preakness and the Holy Bull. Broadly speaking, this is a wide open race with no horse getting higher than a 20% winning probability according to the model. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Tacitus with a 19.07% winning probability, who rates best in final speed at 32.6% and has the second best Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 20.9%. Next is Tax with a 15.76% winning probability. He has the second highest final speed estimate at 28.1%, but is somewhat risky with an 8% CV or Coefficient of Variance ratio. Third is Code of Honor, who has the highest Winning Percentage in the field at 21.2% and the lowest risk, but does not factor well in terms of final speed with a 0% estimate, though has the highest LP estimate at 44%. Fourth is Mucho Gusto with a 13.07% total winning probability, who is coming into the race off a career peak 102 Brisnet final speed figure. Mucho Gusto ranks fourth in final speed behind Tacitus, Tax and Owendale at 15.1%, but is first in the E2 category at 27.7%. Interestingly, Mucho Gusto has the highest COMP estimate at 28.3%, which adds the simulated results from E1, E2 and LP together, meaning that his component estimates stack up well against those of the other horses. Contrary to the Pacific Classic, which was a complete disaster in terms of expectations meeting their mark, it is reasonable to believe that this race will follow expectations better, consideration that the average coefficient of variance for all the horses is just 5%. In terms of pedigree for the distance, the strongest horses appear to be Code of Honor as a son of Noble Mission, Mucho Gusto as son of Mucho Macho Man, and Laughing Fox, sired by Union Rags. Highest Honors and Tacitus are both sons of Tapit. Qualitatively, there is no stand-out horse in this race and the differences between the top horses are slight. Code of Honor looked superb down the stretch in his last race in the Dwyer, but that was at only 1 mi. That said, his sire in Noble Mission was a multiple turf race champion at the G1 level overseas, so the distance should not be an issue for him. For his effort in digging in against Tacitus in the Jim Dandy, Tax has the edge between the two. It’s doubtful he would have been overtaken, had the race gone one furlong farther. Mucho Gusto had a great effort against Maximum Security in the Haskell, showing that he could go toe to toe with the Kentucky Derby champion, but seemed to have maxed himself out at 1 1/8 mi. There’s a risk that Baffert has run him too hard, with this being his fourth race in as many months after his peak effort in the third race off the layoff, which was the Haskell. Tax and Tacitus likewise are coming into the Travers with quick turnarounds on less than a month’s rest. Owendale is intriguing because he’s coming in not only after a peak effort in the Ohio Derby with a final figure of 99, but he’s also more rested than the other horses. In the final analysis, I believe it will be close between Code of Honor and Owendale for 1st because of their last LP figures of 115 and 112, reflected in their top LP estimates, followed by Tax, Tacitus and Mucho Gusto. Mucho Gusto could very well be leading through 1 1/8 mi., but I see him fading after that. In any case, the Handicap Wizard is calling it Tacitus, Tax, Code of Honor, Mucho Gusto and Owendale—all sensible selections that more or less follow the morning line ordering.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 