Here are the projections for today’s G1 $1 Mil. Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program has #5 Sierra Leone as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.49%, translating to theoretical odds of 4-1. The compares to 2-1 on the M/L. Sierra Leone projects second in final speed behind Skippylongstocking with a win estimate of 25.5% while having the highest “in the money” win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 25.3%.
The Grey Program had another good result in the finale at Del Mar yesterday in race 8, a $10K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares, having the winner with its first selection of the first selection of #11 Bud N Suds at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 17.80%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-2. Bud N Suds projected 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 31.2% as well as in LP with a win estimate of 43.8%. In the race, Bud N Suds rallied inside the last sixteenth to get the win. Bun N Suds paid $12.60 for the win.
In the one graded stakes race at Del Mar, the $150K Real Deal Stakes in the 6th, the Grey Program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Speedy Wilson at 8-5. The horse had a total win probability of 29.43%, translating to odds of 2-1, close to where the horse went off at. Speedy Wilson projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 49.1% while having the second high “in the money” win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 24.2%. Speedy Wilson paid $5.20 for the win.
The Turf Program had a nice result in the 5th today at Del Mar, a $25K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #4 Empress Ellie at 9-5 and #5 Ro Town at 4-1. Those final odds compare to theoretical odds of 7-2 for Empress Ellie and 4-1 for Ro Town, exactly where the horse went off at. In the race, Empress Ellie surged down the stretch to catch Ro Town at the wire. The $2 ex. paid $20.20.
In the one graded stakes race at Del Mar today, the $150K Fleet Treat Stakes at 7f for three-year-old filles and mares in race 8, the Grey Program had the winner with its first selection of #3 Om N Joy at 5-2. The horse had a total win probability of 27.70%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2 (matching the live odds). Most notably, Om N Joy projected first in LP with a win estimate of 97.7% (an unheard of value). In the race, Om N Joy made a move toward the rail around the far turn before before launching to the lead down the stretch. The horse paid $7.60 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 