Here are today’s selections for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill according to the Track-IQ Report.

Ahead of the Derby weekend, we will go live on Fri. to cover the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill and action at other major tracks. Coverage will continue through the weekend with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The weather in Louisville is forecast to be cool but mostly dry, with decreasing rain chances following early-week showers. Friday (Oaks) will be partly sunny with highs near 64°F, while Saturday (Derby) is expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with cool temperatures near 61°F–65°F.

Pro-Handicap Analytics announces that its second-tier contender notes have been included in the Kentucky Derby Analysis Package for the race at Churchill Downs.

These notes deliver focused insight into key mid-tier runners whose probability structure, pace dynamics, and form cycles make them legitimate factors beneath the top tier. With the addition of these second-tier evaluations, the Derby package now presents a complete field perspective, capturing both primary contenders and the most dangerous value-driven horses capable of shaping the race outcome.

Pro-Handicap Analytics is pleased to offer the Kentucky Derby Analysis Package for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. It’s now available on the Purchase Page for download. This six-page PDF report is engineered with precision for racing’s most important stage. The package features the Track-IQ Report for the Kentucky Derby, delivering precision model odds and quantitative analysis to define pace structure and the projected winning profile, alongside Primary and Second-Tier Contender Commentary/Notes that distill each leading runner through form, connections, and preparation. The Overlay Map provides a clear, field-wide visual of probability and positioning, while the Overlay Map Notes elevate that view—covering all 20 entrants and breaking down each horse through its underlying metrics, calling out true overlays, extreme statistical signals, pace advantages, and structural vulnerabilities across the field. They don’t just describe the data—they interpret it, isolating where value is supported, where it is fragile, and how the race is most likely to unfold from a betting perspective. *Note that the model odds generated in the Overlay Map are from the baseline or “universal” model before refinement and specialization in the Track-IQ report for a 1 1/4 mi. route race on the dirt at Churchill. These odds paint a slightly different picture of the race and may indicate horses that have the potential to surprise. **The Track-IQ report has been updated to incorporate a Derby-specific long-route model, refining projections for 10-furlong stamina, pace attrition, and large-field dynamics (4/27).

The Track-IQ framework had excellent results today at Gulfstream with 100% coverage of the winner with Primary/Secondary/Tertiary/Quarternary selections in all 9 races covered. These results demonstrate high model accuracy for dirt and turf and elite contender identification. Below is a table of the winning horses and their tier positions as well as the winning exacta results.

Click to access gpx0425_trackiq_full_zip_pipeline.pdf

GPX0425 — Results Table (R2–R11)

R	Winner	Tier	Win $	Exacta	Tiers (1st–2nd)	Exacta $
2	#6 LEIGH’S LAST HERO	Q	39.40	6–11	Q – ❌	—
4	#5 MAITRE D	P	4.80	5–4	P – S	18.40
5	#5 PAPA GOLF	Q	13.00	5–7	Q – ❌	—
6	#5 NIC’S STYLE	P	2.20	5–4	P – S	2.60
7	#3 MY BOY STAR	S	18.20	3–9	S – T	63.40
8	#5 TANK	S	7.60	5–6	S – P	39.40
9	#5 MYTHICAL	P	2.20	5–8	P – ❌	—
10	#8 DAMON’S MOUND	P	3.40	8–1	P – T	13.00
11	#9 SOUPER ZONDA	T	5.60	9–8	T – P	45.80