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Another major race today is the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Fountain of Youth Winner, #11 Sovereignty at 8-5 on the M/L, Holy Bull runner-up, #11 Tappan Street at 5-1, Rebel runner-up, #8 Madaket Road at 7-2. Following the M/L favorite, #11 Sovereignty is the first selection with a total win probability of 28.69%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projects 2^nd in final speed with a 36.9% win estimate but has a dominating LP win estimate of 92.6%, suggesting that he will thrive at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Second is #8 Madaket Road with a 23.78% total win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 23.78%. The horse projects significant early speed with E1 and E2 win estimates of 72.9% and 42.0% and has a high COMP value of 65.8%, indicating that the horse projects 3-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate against the field. Third is #9 Tappan Street with a total win probability of 17.35%. That equates to theoretical odds of 9-2. Tappan Street projects first in final speed with a 39.2% win chance. Fourth is #1 Neoequos with a total win probability of 9.77%. What stands out in this race is Sovereignty’s dominate late speed versus, as reflected in his LP estimate, versus Madaket Road’s high COMP value, which suggests that will have the reserve energy to sustain him beyond the early speed in E1 and E2 of 1 mi. Madaket Road’s threat is that he will run away from the field early on and coast on to victory before Sovereignty can catch him. The final selections are #11 Sovereignty, #8 Madaekt Road, #11 Tappan Street, #1 Neoequos.       

The program had a good result today in the $200K Temperance Hill Stakes in race 10 at Oaklawn (1 1/2 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up), having the winner with its first selection of #11 Lambeth at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 22.50%, translating to odds of 3-1. In the race, Lambeth led early on through the first mile before being challenged by #6 Game Warden coming out of the far turn. Lambeth dug in in the one path down the stretch to win by two lengths. Lambeth paid $6.00 for the win. In some interations of the simulations of this race, the program had Game Warden as the second selection and the exacta order correct, 11-6. The $1 ex. paid $17.00.

The program had a nice result today in race 3 at Gulfstream, a $20K OC at 5f on the dirt four four-year-olds, with its second selection, #5 Whirlwind Ride at 9-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.26%, converting to theoretical odds of about 4-1. Besides projecting early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 15.5% and 17.3%, Whirlwind Ride had the highest COMP value at 43.2% (7-5 relative strength on a component level in the aggregate) and win percentage at 28.6% (5-2 equivalent). In the race, Whirlwind Ride led through the opening quarter and held on to win by a length. The horse paid $21.60 for the win.

Today at the Fairgrounds is the $1 mil. G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features the undefeated Sam F. Davis winner, #1 John Hancock at 7-2 on the M/L, Lecomte runner-up and Risen Star Stakes show finisher, #6 Built at 4-1, Sunland Derby runner-up, #5 Caldera, and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #2 Chuck of Gold. The program is favoring #1 John Hancock as its first selection, who has a total win probability of 20.76%, converting to odds of 7-2. That is exactly were he is on the M/L. The horse projects second in final speed with a 28.6% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 16.5%. The second selection is #6 Built with a total win probability of 16.22%, translating to odds of 5-1. Built projects third in final speed with a 20.5% win estimate and has early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 21.2% and 35.5%. Third is #5 Caldera with a total win probability of 15.35%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Fourth is #3 Tiztastic, who has a total win probability 12.16% but has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 27.2% (equating to 3-1 strength). Tiztastic placed 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in Nov. as a two-year-old and 3rd again in the Southwest at the end of Jan. In the final analysis, this race is wide up with no horse having shorter odds than John Hancock at 7-2. The final speed projections of John Hancock, Built and Caldera are all believable due to their horses having relatively low risk, as indicated by their Coefficient of Variances below 7%. John Hancock has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field at 97 and that was in winning the Sam F. Davis at 1 1/6 mi. Next is Caldera, who recorded a 96 in the 1 1/16 mi. Sunland Derby in finishing second, a race which he lost by only a nose. Both horses finished their last races in duels with other horses with John Hancock digging in to beat Owen Almighty by a length. This is in contrast to Built, who finished 3rd and 10 lenghths behind the winner in the Risen Star, Magnitude. The Brad Cox horse, #9 Instant Replay, is worth mentioning for winning his last race, a $100K OC at 1 1/16 mi. in the Fairgrounds in Feb. Instant Replay projects the highest LP with a 38.2% win estimate, which may prove decisive in this longer, 1 3/16 mi. race. The selections are #1 John Hancock, #6 Built, #5 Caldera and #3 Tiztastic.