Tag: horses

Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby Recap, Mar. 28, 2026

By handicapwizard on 29 Mar 202629 Mar 2026

Florida Derby

The Track-IQ framework did well today in both the Florida and Arkansas Derbies. In the Florida Derby, it identified the winner with its Secondary selection in #4 Commandment at 9-5, who was a solid choice (3-1 fair-value odds) behind the favorite, #6 Nearly at 7-5. The bettors made Nearly the clear favorite by bidding it down to 3-5 at one point before the horse settled at 7-5. #4 Commandment had SPD win probability of 33% according to a simulation of 1000 races, signaling that the horse had 2-1 strength in his current form. Those were the odds it went off at. The framework also had the place horse in #8 the Puma at 7-1 as its quaternary selection. As mentioned yesterday on the Pro-Handicap Analytics Youtube Channel in the preview video of the race, the Puma’s final speed figure in the Tampa Derby looked mighty suspect, given he ran the Derby in the same time of 1.43 and 1 that Commandment and #2 Chief Wallabee also ran the Fountain of Youth in when both races were at the same distance of 1 1/16 mi. Brisnet needs to explain that one because the 93 final speed for the Puma was clearly understated as the horse contradicted with his strong performance today. In the race, Nearly ran from just off the pace through the opening half mile but then began to weaken while the Puma catapulted around the turn and took the lead midway down the stretch. Commandment flew late in the middle of the track and caught the the Puma at the wire in a photo finish. The photo was very close where you could argue that the Puma was still ahead at the wire on the inside part of the track; but the stewards gave it to Commandment. The $1 ex. paid $12.10.

Arkansas Derby

In the Arkansas Derby, Renegade was the Primary Selection and odds favorite at 4-5. Renegade took a wide trip around the far turn and then overtook #2 Silent Tactic midway down the stretch before going on to win by four lengths. The Track-IQ framework had the superfecta horses, with #4 Bricklan at 44-1 coming in 4th. The $0.10 superfecta paid $47.19. This result once again, shows the accuracy of the Track-IQ system.

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Belmont Stakes Preview, Sat., Jun. 7, 2025

By handicapwizard on 7 Jun 20258 Jun 2025

Today at Belmont at Saratoga is the $2 million Belmont Stakes, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. As the third leg of the Triple Crown, the race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including Kentucky Derby winner, #7 Journalism, Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Sovereignty, Kentucky Derby third place finisher, #6 Baeza, and Wood Memorial winner, #3 Rodriguez. The program has #7 Journalism at 8-5 on the M/L as its first selection with a total win probability of 32.36% (2-1 theoretical odds). Journalism projects first in final speed with a 46.1% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 27.9%. Second is Third is #6 Baeza with a total win probability of 17.97% (9-2 theoretical odds). Baeza projects 2^nd in final speed with a win estimate of 31.32% while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.98%. Third is #2 Sovereignty with a total win probability of 17.24% (7-2 theoretical odds). Sovereignty is the class in the race with a win percentage of 36% following his win the Kentucky Derby and second place finish in the Florida Derby. Fourth is #3 Rodriguez with a total win probability of 11.98% (7-1 theoretical odds. Rodriguez projects third in final speed with a 13.4% win estimate while having a COMP value of 28.3%, indicating strength on a component level in the aggregate relative to the field. In the final analysis, Journalism appears in good form for a rematch with Sovereignty after the former’s thrilling come from behind win in the Preakness. The former horse projects first in final speed while also having a strong COMP 55.4% (equating to 4-5 strength). Journalism is coming off only three weeks rest whereas Sovereignty sat out the Preakness and has been off 35 days. With the track expected to be muddy today, Sovereignty may have the edge between the two horses after having defeated Journalism on the wet track by a length at the Kentucky Derby. Baeza is the second selection because of his final speed projection of 31.3%, but the horse finished behind Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bob Baffert Trained, Rodriguez, is in a position to be the spoiler today on the back of his win in the Wood Memorial when he recorded a 105 final speed figure. The horse did not race in the first two legs of the Triple Crown because of injury. The final selections are #7 Journalism, #6 Baeza, #2 Sovereignty and #3 Rodriguez.

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$2 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, Sat., May 17

By handicapwizard on 17 May 202517 May 2025

Today at Pimlico is the second leg of the Triple Crown in Horse Racing, the $2 mil Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. In the race is Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Journalism, Arkansas Derby winner, # 7 Sandman, Virginia Derby winner, #3, American Promise, Federico Tessio winner, #5 Pay Billy. As expected, the program has #2 Journalism at 7-5 as its first selection with a total win probability of 29.19%. The horse projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 42.2% and is the class in the race with an “in the money” win percentage of 34.6%. Second is #1 Goal Oriented with a total win probability of 15.62%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-1. Goal Oriented projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 22.2% (about 4-1 equivalent strength) while projecting first in LP with a win estimate of 48%. Having just two starts, Goal Oriented’s win percentage is just 5.5%, though. The third selection is #3 American Promise with a total win probability of 13.13%, translating to odds of 7-1. American Promise projects first in E1 and E2 but has the highest Coefficient of Variance at 18.69% and being bumped and recording a poor final speed figured in the Kentucky Derby. His win percentage is only 4.1%. Fourth is #8 Clever Again with a total win probability of 12.48%, converting to theoretical odds of7-1. Clever Again projects with strength across E1, E2 and LP and has a COMP value of 15.4%, signaling 6-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. In the final analysis, there is no reason to bet against Journalism who has done everything right in his career thus far except losing to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby on the wet track against a fast pace (opening half mile was run in 0:46). Journalism’s win percentage of 34.6% (2-1 equivalent in odds) tells the tale of this horse. However, Journalism has a threat in this race from Goal Oriented, who is undefeated in two starts after recording a 104 final speed figure in a $125K OC at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt at Churchill two weeks ago. While having to step up against much tougher competition, Goal Oriented benefits from having Bob Baffert as his trainer, who has won the Preakness more than any other trainer in eight times. When American Promise is excluded from the calculations, whose erratic performance in Kentucky Derby skews the data for the field, Goal Oriented projections become even more impressive with a COMP value of 56.4% along having a low Coefficient of Variance of 4.1%. The horse’s jockey, Flavien Prat, won the Preakness once aboard Rombauer in 2021. American Promise is a tepid third selection after getting banged up in the Kentucky Derby and finishing sixteenth and thirty eight lengths back. The field size in the Preakness is close to what he faced in the Virginia Derby when he won. American Promise too benefits from having a Preakness winning trainer in Wayne Lukas (seven wins). Like Goal Oriented, Clever Again will be stepping way up in the class after winning the $200K Hot Springs Stakes at 1 mi. at Oakland at the end of March. This is after winning his $110K maiden in February. Clever Again is sired by Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah. The final selections are #2 Journalism, #1 Goal Oriented, #3 American Promise and #8 Clever Again.

Posted in: churchill-downs, horse-racing, horses, kentucky-derby, sports

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Arkansas Derby Preview, Sat., Mar. 29

By handicapwizard on 29 Mar 202529 Mar 2025

Today at Oaklawn is the $1.5 mil. G1 Arkansas Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Rebel Stakes winner, #8 Coal Battle, who’s undefeated in his last four starts, #6 Sandman, who came in 3^nd in the Southwest and 2^nd in the Rebel, Southwest winner, #5 Speed King, and maiden winner and Baffert trained, #9 Cornucopian. The program is favoring Cornucopian at 7-5 with a total win probability of 34.68%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-5. The horse projects 1^st in final speed with a win chance of 70.9% while having a COMP value of 95%. Though Cornucopian projections are dominant, he is lightly run with only one start and is jumping way up in class from a $110K maiden race to the G1 Arkansas Derby. He is also stretching out from 6f to 1 1/16 mi. Second is #8 Coal Battle at 7-2 with a total win probability of 22.26%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-2. Coal Battle projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 29.1% while having slightly elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.86%. Coal Battle has the second highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 25.2% behind #5 Speed King’s 29%. Third is #5 Speed King, who has a total win probability of 21.62%. That’s equates to theoretical odds of 9-2, well less than the M/L of 15-1. Therefore, Speed King will be a big overlay today. Speed King regressed in his last race in the Rebel in finishing 10^th after winning the Southwest at Oaklawn in late Jan. Fourth is #6 Sandman at 3-1 with a total win probability of 7.83%, equating to theoretical odds 12-1. Sandman’s LP win estimate of 12.8% does not seem to reflect his late surge at the wire in the Rebel when he nearly caught Coal King at the 1 1/16 mi distance. This race comes down to whether Cornucopian can last the 1 1/8 mi. Cornucopian’s sire, Into Mischief, won a G1 at 1 1/16 mi in a fast time of 1:40.82. Based on the projections, Cornucopian should win the race fairly easily but will be challenged by Coal King and Sandman down the stretch. Only Speed King has a slight speed advantage on Cornucopian with E1 and E2 values of 47.6% and 52.6% but will have to rate better today to competete in this race at the longer distance. The final selections are #9 Cornucopian, #8 Coal Battle, #6 Sandman and #5 Speed King.

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The Case For White Abbario in the Pegasus World Cup, Sat., Jan 25

By handicapwizard on 25 Jan 202525 Jan 2025

White Abbario may be the sleeper horse in the Pegasus World Cup based on recent form because of how the horse placed second in a G3 race at 7f on Dec. 28 at Gulfstream. In spite of that disappointing performance, the Handicap Wizard still rates White Abbario as the second selection when he is only 1% behind Saudi Crown in terms of total win probability (17.22% versus 16.29%). But there are some things going for White Abbario, including strong works at Gulfstream this month (0:48 over 4f on Jan. Jan 16 and 0:47 over 4f on Jan. 9), a 75% lifetime win percentage at Gulfstream (6 wins in 8 starts, including the Florida Derby in 2022), a solid win percentage at 18.9% (4-1 strength in terms of money wins adjusted for stakes), and the highest LP projection in the field at 48.5% win estimate. The latter is particularly important for the distance of the race at 1 1/8 mi when no other horse come close to having the late pace strength. Even though White Abbario finished second in his last race, he still recorded a LP figure of 107. Therefore, White Abbario is primed for the longer distance and should be in better form in this race when this will be his third race after a layoff in the fall 2024. He also has a jockey advantage with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, who has won the Pegasus World Cup twice previously.

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