By The $150K Swale Stakes (G3) at GP, run at 7f on dirt for three-year olds, turned out to be a contest between #5 Call Paul’s class, who was the favorite at 3-2, and #9 Zenden’s speed. At 9-1 Zenden was rated by the market mid-pack, with four horses having lower odds than him. The Handicap Wizard rated him strongest with a 24% winning probability, owing to a 35% winning speed estimate. In the end, Call Paul’s class proved superior, but just barely, in that he won by a length to a horse that had only a 10% implied winning probability compared to his own probability of 27%. In all fairness, the data integrity of the race was low at .27, meaning there was scant data for the Handicap Wizard to assess, yet it nearly had the exacta order correct, #5 and #9, which paid $40.40.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 