By The Track-IQ framework had a nice result in the 3rd race at Keeneland today, a $130K Clm at 5.5f on the turf for four-year-olds, having the winning horse with its Primary selection of #7 Amoudi Bay at 6-1 compared to fair-value odds of 2.4-1. The horse had dominant SPD, E1 and E2 win probabilties of 44%, 44% and 48%. Amoudi Bay went wire-to-wire in the race after recording quick opening fractions of 22.87 and 46.51. The horse paid $14.86 for the win. The low Field Risk and Chaos Index readings pointed to reliability by Amoudi Bay in the race, who himself had a low Coefficient of Variance (CV) of 6.4%. This was significant mispricing or inefficient pricing by the market at Keeneland. Note that the “Model” Odds in the Track-IQ report are the “refined odds” from the custom track model for Keeneland whereas the “ODDS” in the Overlay Map are from a universal model.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 