By As has been mentioned before on this blog, one cannot control outcomes in horse racing but what you can control is the price at which you buy risk and how you position yourself for a winning outcome with the right selection. Race 6 at Keeneland, a $120K Alw at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for four-year-olds, was a wide open race with no horse being assigned by fair-value odds less that 4-1. #9 Sumood had the lowest fair-value odds of 4.4-1 as a 4-1 underlay. However, there was value to be found in this race on the Overlay Map with the #7 horse, A Bourbon for Toby at 11-1, who presented not only a true Buy Signal with a WP% of 14.4% (6-1 FV by that metric versus 11-1 live odds) but also had a LP win probability of 23.2% (about 3-1 FV by that metric) and low Coefficient of Variance (low risk) of 5.7%. This explains why both the cells with the horse’s LP and WP% were shaded in the map because of its 8-1 M/L, meaning those values converted to odds were at a discount to the M/L, which was even lower than the horse’s live odds. In the race, it was Bourbon for Toby’s LP strength that made the difference when the horse came well off the pace down the straight and caught the Primary selection, Sumood at the wire in a photo finish. Bourbon for Toby’s paid $25.06 for the win. Combining “buy signal” overlay horses with Primary selections in exactas can be a very profitable combination. The $2 ex. 7-9 paid $133.36.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 