By In the $1.25 mil. G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, the Track-IQ Report had the exacta order reversed with #8 Claret Beret, winning at 8-1 (versus fair value odds of a little under 4-1) as the Secondary selection and #1 Nitrogen coming in second at 4-5 (versus 3-1 fair value odds) as the Primary Selection. Claret Beret had the highest win probability for final speed at 48%, a factor that was misjudged by the market while it gave precedence to Nitrogen’s high WP% of 33% (converting to 2-1 odds fair value according to that metric). WP% again stands for Career Win Percentage by money finishes, adjusted for the stakes level. By contrast, Nitrogen’s had a SPD win probability of 14%. Claret Beret’s better current form and projected final speed advantage proved to be the difference in the race, with the horse winning going away by five. The framework also had the tri-fecta horses with #2 Majestic Oops coming in 3rd as projected. Great call by Matt Dinerman today at Oaklawn.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 