By In action at Keeneland over the weekend, both the G3 $400K Lexington Stakes and G2 $400K Giant’s Causeway were arguably difficult races to handicap in view of the Track-IQ Report not assigning fair-value odds to any horse at less than 3-1 in both races. #10 Confessional was the Primary selection in the Lexington with fair-value odds of 3.3-1 and #2 Charlene’s Dream had that slot in Giant’s Causeway with 3.14-1 fair value odds. From a mathematical view the race was fairly wide open. Nonetheless, pricing opportunities could be found in the race with the help of the Overlay Map, which had assigned Buy signals to the eventual winners in both races, that is, #8 Trendsetter at 32-1 in the first race and #7 In Our Time at 5-1 in the second, for the same reason. Buy signals (“Buy” is shown in the “FLAGS” Column) are assigned when career win percentage by money finishes, adjusted for stakes (WP%), converts to odds below the M/L. Trendsetter’s implied odds from its 13.4% WP% were 6.5-1, well below both his M/L of 20-1 and final odds of 32-1. While the horse did not show much current form compared to the field with a SPD win probability of 0.2% and E1 of 5.7%, the horse had a low Coefficient of Variance of 6.4%. Betting on Trendsetter amounted to a play on his Win Percentage (3rd highest in the field) when the horse was showing low risk of variance or running erratically. With 32-1 odds the market was giving him only a 3% chance of winning against this field. After breaking its maiden, the horse had previously had one win, one place and one show against lower stakes competition ($100k – $250k races). Because of how he projected poorly in his current form, the market had discounted him heavily. In the race, Trendsetter came alive at the top of the stretch and with giant strides passed the leaders, #1 Corono De Oro at 3-1 and #7 The Hell We Did at 5-1, midway down the stretch in the upset. The Overlay Map revealed Trendsetter’s mispricing as a “micro overlay” in terms of career win percentage and low risk.
The outcome of the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland told a similar picture, with the eventual winning horse, #7 In Our Time at 5-1, winning with a Buy signal because of her 19.5% WP% being discounted to her 6-1 M/L and 5-1 final odds. Like with Trendsetter in the Lexington, In Our Times projected fairly poorly in terms of current form as measured by win probabilities for SPD, E1, E2, LP and COMP but had a very low Coefficient of Variance of 2.9%, indicating the horse is reliable. But unlike with Trendsetter, the market respected In Our Times WP% of 19.5% much more, as its implied odds were 4-1 according to that metric compared to final odds of 5-1. In the race, In Our Times stalked from just off the pace in the one path through the opening half mile and around the far turn and then accelerated mid stretch while the path stayed open, going on to win by two lengths. In Our Times‘ class held up in the race. Both races make the case for the Overlay Map being a useful tool that can help spot value in horses that are undervalued according to their career win percentage when they also have low risk.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 