By The Track-IQ framework had a nice result today in the first of two stakes races at Belmont at Aqueduct in the 8th, the $175K G3 Beaugay Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years-old and up, having the winner with its primary selection of #2 City Girl at 7-2 versus fair value odds of 0.9-1. The horse had a very high 92% win probability for LP along with low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 2%. The horse’s late speed dominance proved the difference in the race with City Girl winning by a length over the favorite #1 Dynamic Pricing, the other Chad Brown horse. City Girl paid $9.02 for the win.
In race 9, a $55K OClm at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, there was a similar story with #9 Protective Custody winning at 3-1 as an overlay compared to Model Odds of 1.4-1. Protective Custody had dominant SPD and LP win probabilities of 48% and 70% in a race where the horse was clearly undervalued in view of her superior current form relative to the field. Protective Custody paid $8.88 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 