Today’s feature race is the G1 $750K Woodford Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi on the dirt for three-year olds and up. While perhaps not being on par with the Travers last week, this race has a number of graded stakes winners and runner-ups, including Vino Rosso, winner of the Pacific Gold Cup in late May at Santa Anita. Preservationalist is back, who won the Suburban at Belmont in July, but came up flat most recently in the Whitney at the beginning of August. After coming in second to McKinzie in the Whitney, the Chinese invader, Yoshida, will see if he can match or top his peak performance effort last time out. There’s also Toms d’Etat, a two-time winner at lower stakes, most recently, in the Alydar at Saratoga and Mr. Buff, who’s the winner of four of six stakes races lifetime. Like with the Traves, this race, too, is an open race, with only one horse receiving higher than 20% winning probability, and that is Preservationalist at 20.37%. The big question with Preservationalist, of course, is whether he can bounce back from the 4th place finish in the Whitney, when he was leading through the far turn in that mile and an eighth race, but ultimately tired after posting quick early fractions. His trainer, Jimmy Jerkins, said that his horse worked well last week, citing one blowout work in particular, and so deserves to take another shot. Jerkins faulted the regular rider for Preservationalist, Alvardo, for losing ground early on in order to take the lead from McKinzie after breaking from the outside, a strategy that ultimately backfired. In the same race, Vino Rosso finished one position better to get third. He may have suffered some from a less than optimal trip in being six-wide down the stretch after being only two lengths back coming out of the far turn. The rider for Vino Rosso, John Velazquez, comes in with the hot hand after winning the Travers last week aboard Code of Honor. Yoshida looked lively in the Whitney, finishing 2nd in that race, while showing a burst of speed down the stretch. Like with Vino Rosso, he got hung wide coming out of the far turn, which cost him significant ground, when he lost by under two lengths in the end, thanks to a huge LP figure of 113. Toms d’Etat is not a horse that should be underestimated in this race after a very good effort in the 1 1/8 mi. Alydar at Saratoga at the beginning of August, when he won by one length, but was hand ridden for the last sixteenth of mile. In terms of metrics, Preservationalist has the edge in speed with a final speed estimate of 38.7%, but has fairly low E2 and LP estimates. He is third in Winning percentage at 13%, which would make him a 6 or 7-1 horse by fair value according to that metric instead of 7-2, which is where he is on the morning line. Second in speed is Tom’s d’Etat at 26.8%. He has above average distribution from E1 through LP, but is little light in winning percentage at 9.3%. Yoshida is 4th highest in terms of speed at 10.2% but has the highest LP estimate in the field at 44%. He also has the highest winning percentage at 25%. However, all four of the top selections, including Vino Rosso, are overlays according to the model, if you’re going by the morning line odds. Mongolian Groom at 15-1 on the M/L versus an 8.5% total winning probability and Bal Harbor at 15-1 as well versus a 9.7% winning probability are two horses offering at least a little value. Mongolian Groom comes in in good form after finishing 3rd in the Pacific Classic and 2nd in the San Diego Handicap before that. For his part, Bal Harbour put in a gritty effort his last time out in the Monmouth Cup in late July, when he lost by a head to War Story, who did nothing in the Pacific Classic. While this is a wide open race, it is not necessarily a good one handicapping-wise, when none of the favorites are offering any value. Because I don’t think that a reversion to the mean is a given in the case of Preservationalist as a six-year old horse after Alvardo’s shaky ride last time, I would opt for Yoshida in this race who finished solidly in the Whitney, followed by Toms d’Etat, and Mongolian Groom or Bal Harbour for third. The Handicap Wizard has the order Preservationalist at 20.37%, Yoshida at 18.73%, Toms E’tat at 15.02% and Vino Rosso at 13.76%.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 